Assassination Attempt Unlikely to Change Donald Trump's Communication Approach
If anything, we will see authenticity and likely, a stronger rhetoric from him
Experiencing an attempt on one’s life, being wounded and surviving it has to powerfully affect one’s emotions, psychology and life moving forward.
In the case of former President Donald Trump, could it lead, out of fear, to possible changes in how pointedly he publicly communicates? Will he be more cautious in the use of his words or will he remain himself and maybe even speak more strongly?
Communication Intelligence was curious and sought out sources to speak insightfully to the questions and topic because words drive emotions and emotions drive actions.
“Predicting how an individual like former President Donald Trump, will react to a significant event such as an assassination attempt, involves considering several factors, including their personality, past behavior and the specific circumstances of the event,” says Karolina Króliczek, founder and CEO of the digital public relations agency, PR Insight.
“Throughout his political career, he has rarely shied away from controversial or pointed remarks, even in the face of criticism or threats.”
She suggests looking back in time for a helpful guide.
“History shows mixed responses from political figures who have faced assassination attempts. Some, like Ronald Reagan, maintained their public personas with little change, while others became more reserved or thoughtful in their public engagements,” Króliczek points out.
“Given these factors, it’s plausible to suggest that while Donald Trump may exhibit some increased caution due to security concerns, his fundamental style of communication is unlikely to change dramatically.”
William Bike, a political historian and author of “Winning Political Campaigns” also brings up Reagan.
“President Ronald Reagan’s rhetoric and actions became less strident after the assassination attempt against him, but Reagan had a less feisty personality than Trump, Bike says. “Trump was feisty even when he got shot, pumping his fist in the air.”
That said, he mentions one adjustment he already recognized, even if it might be temporary in nature.
“Trump said he moderated his convention speech because of the assassination attempt, but I don’t expect this to stick,” he says.
“We live in a different world than when would-be assassins shot at President Ford and President Reagan and the public banded together in support. The rhetoric barely moderated for a day from both sides after Trump was shot and then both sides were back to being hyper partisan.
“So if anything, Trump is going to speak even more strongly, emboldened by the fact that he survived the assassination attempt,” Bike asserts.
Jordan McAuley, the founder at Celebrity PR, Contact Any Celebrity, agrees and points to a specific reason why, outside of Trump’s personality and communication history, that he expects no dialing back on the former president’s punchy communication.
"I am afraid Trump is going to use this event as a catalyst to speak more strongly," McAuley says. “He is a marketing genius who will use this tragedy and its accompanying fist-in-the-air, blood-on-his-face photos, to his advantage.”
Mary Beth West, a public relations advisor with expertise in strategic management and communication, says Trump is going to remain who he has been and is, when it comes to how he interacts with the public.
“Based solely on Mr. Trump’s prior history, he likely will revert in short order after the Republican National Convention, to what has been his decades-long mode of pointed, unfiltered and candid commentary,” she says. “That mode has existed as a big part of who he is, even predating his political career.”
This doesn’t meant that Trump won’t be affected by what happened and could have happened to him when he was the target for assassination and was wounded.
“Based on the unique enormity of what he only narrowly escaped and survived on July 13, there is the real possibility that this experience has impacted him in a way that the public has yet to know, until we see it play out in his communication choices, particularly after the Convention,” West says.
“Either way, Mr. Trump experienced a traumatic personal event, further punctuated by the fact that there was loss of life and serious injury by people who were present at the scene for no other reason than to support his purpose. I anticipate these realities will weigh on him and fuel his commitment to his cause all the more.”
Janie Mackenzie, the PR Manager for Ascendant Group Branding, a CEO and executive branding and PR agency, does forecast a change.
“I do believe that the assassination attempt will have an effect on the way former President Trump communicates publicly, however, not in the way you might expect,” she states.
“Showing fear or any sort of weakness goes against his personal brand and would alienate his base. This attempt is only going to embolden Trump’s public comments and will drive an even stronger focus on law-and-order policy.”
“Why should he moderate his rhetoric when feisty rhetoric has gotten him this far,” Bike says, going on to illustrate how even more of that type of communication is coming.
“Trump's choice of a fire-eating communicator in Senator JD Vance for Vice President shows there isn't going to be any moderating of communication coming from the campaign. If anything, Vance might be Trump's Spiro Agnew, offering even more-extreme rhetoric than the candidate at the top of the ticket.”
Bike isn’t the only one forecasting this development.
"I predict he will give an initial speech at the RNC that will be unity-focused but then delve right back into the Trumpian win-at-all-cost tactics we know so well,” McAuley predicts. “Look for themes of ‘I survived an assassination attempt,’ ‘the Dems are trying to kill me,’ and ‘we cannot trust our government to protect us.’”
It’s a gift of an opportunity for Trump and his campaign, one source suggests.
“This attempt (on his life) will probably embolden him to show unwavering strength in his policies, and prove that his administration is ‘winning,’” Mackenzie says.
This Communication Intelligence conversation appears to be forecasting that the emotional temperature in the nation, especially in media and online, will remain dangerously overheated.
"No matter what Trump says, the media ecosystem, especially online, is going to be crazy,” McAuley says. “His supporters on Twitter are already spreading memes of Trump with his fist in the air and blood on his face. Joe Biden is behind Trump in the polls, showing his age — and with only four months to go until the election, this event gives Trump the perfect ammunition to use this event to his advantage and win."
How quickly society got back to being angry at each other was no surprise.
“The emotional temperature cooled for only about a day after the Saturday, July 13, shooting and by Monday was back to high heat on both sides,” Bike says.
“Most people interested and engaged in politics today don’t even remember the gentlemanly days of Gerald Ford versus Jimmy Carter, the last presidential election in which both sides treated the other kindly, agreed on policy and only disagreed on how to execute it,” he remembers. “Politics has been all-out war since Newt Gingrich in the 1990s and there is no going back.”
The socio-political landscape leading up to the election will remain dangerously hot.
“The way Trump communicates will change the temperature in the country to a small degree alone,” Mackenzie says. “He may pick up support and sympathy from undecided voters and independents if his temperament remains calm but it will depend on the results of the investigation into the shooter.
“As more information comes out in regards to his background, Trump’s rhetoric will change and could cause an even larger rift in an already divided and frightened nation.”
West is willing to point a critical finger towards the media, social media and their algorithms and citizens communicating online.
“This intense heat everyone is clutching their pearls over is a product of our media and social media, to a far more massive degree than the power or influence of any individual candidate or personality,” she says. “So, those folks need to take responsibility too, in how they systemically operate, but of course, that’s likely a pipe dream.”
To her, a candidate has to be who they are and let that determine their aspirations and political outcomes.
“Mr. Trump shouldn’t try to be someone he isn’t or espouse some new stylistic mode that he himself cannot sustain over time,” West says.
“Any attempt by Mr. Trump to modify his natural communication mode in the days ahead but then revert to his default setting right after the Convention will be criticized, panned and demonized by his opponents — and rightly so.”
Even though it is well documented, not all citizens and media consumers realize how they are playing into the figurative hands of manipulative communication, West says.
“There’s also this: Far too many individuals, interest groups, other politicians and media entities survive and thrive by stoking the fires of the nation’s ‘emotional temperature,’” she states.
“So, while Mr. Trump is indeed a leader and influencer of others in this regard, what and how Mr. Trump communicates rarely occurs in a vacuum.
“He acts out but also reacts to the acting out of others. He’s a fighter, point-for-point and that’s how he rolls.
“Yes, he will be and should be held responsible for his own choices.
“But for the public to have any expectation that Mr. Trump is going to ‘Kumbaya’ his way through the remainder of the campaign with flowery speeches and passivity to others’ aggression is wildly unrealistic,” she declares.
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Thought provoking as usual. I watched the original "Manchurian Candidate" movie the other night. The parallels are chilling 60 years later. A little more civility in politics would be welcome.